Digital and Social Media Predictions for 2010 (Part I)

December 30, 2009 | Written by Yan Shikhvarger

2010 should be an interesting year for developments in the digital and social media space because it has matured rapidly.  Realistic expectations are set.  The 3-digit Twitter growth rates are gone.  Social Media cannot overthrow entrenched repressive governments.  The hype has lessened, and we are farther along in understanding the role of digital and SM.

So here are some educated guesses/predictions for the upcoming year.  Please voice your feedback or add your own.

• Commoditization of services: Loyalty towards providers/publishers will erode for convenience.  The huge success of products like Seesmic (which allow you to use Facebook, Twitter, etc… from one dashboard) account for large amounts of activity and this is likely to grow.  So is it about Twitter or is it about status updates? Is it about Facebook or staying in touch with your network?  Is it about the actual iPhone or the apps?There are so many services and so much pressure to open the gates in order to stay competitive that it is the commodity services that work across platforms like Seesmic, similar dashboards, and app providers that will grow rapidly as a result.
  
  The service will become more important than the provider.

• Exclusive deals, not acquisitions: This goes back to an earlier post about the ‘Cold War’ between Microsoft and Google, and is rooted in content/service providers being able to play Google and Microsoft against one another.  Much like during the actual Cold War when various countries could go back and forth in their loyalties in order to get the best benefits and aid, in a similar way, publishers can forge relationships knowing they have options between the two.Because such conflicts are long-term, the publishers (e.g.. Yelp, Twitter, etc…) know they have time and are in no rush to sell off their complete sovereignty and would rather sign short term access deals to show revenue potential (precisely as Twitter has done recently). So therefore do not expect huge acquisitions.

Stay tuned for Part II…

Tags: digital business trends